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Ducted Heat Pump Market

ID: MRFR/Equip/28602-HCR
100 Pages
Snehal Singh
October 2025

Ducted Heat Pump Market Research Report By Installation Type (New Installations, Replacement Installations), By Capacity (Up to 5 tons, 5-10 tons, 10-15 tons, 15 tons and above), By Application (Residential, Commercial, Industrial), By Efficiency Rating (SEER 13-16, SEER 16-18, SEER 18-21, SEER 21 and above) and By Regional (North America, Europe, South America, Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa) - Forecast to 2035

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Ducted Heat Pump Market Summary

As per MRFR analysis, the Ducted Heat Pump Market Size was estimated at 10.77 USD Billion in 2024. The Ducted Heat Pump industry is projected to grow from 11.42 USD Billion in 2025 to 20.67 USD Billion by 2035, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.11 during the forecast period 2025 - 2035.

Key Market Trends & Highlights

The Ducted Heat Pump Market is poised for substantial growth driven by technological advancements and a focus on sustainability.

  • North America remains the largest market for ducted heat pumps, driven by increasing energy efficiency demands.
  • The Asia-Pacific region is emerging as the fastest-growing market, fueled by rising consumer awareness and regulatory support.
  • New installations represent the largest segment, while replacement installations are experiencing the fastest growth due to technological innovations.
  • Key market drivers include increased energy efficiency and government incentives promoting renewable energy solutions.

Market Size & Forecast

2024 Market Size 10.77 (USD Billion)
2035 Market Size 20.67 (USD Billion)
CAGR (2025 - 2035) 6.11%

Major Players

Daikin (JP), Mitsubishi Electric (JP), Carrier (US), Trane (US), LG Electronics (KR), Fujitsu (JP), Panasonic (JP), Rheem (US), Bosch (DE), Hitachi (JP)

Ducted Heat Pump Market Trends

The Ducted Heat Pump Market is currently experiencing a notable transformation, driven by increasing energy efficiency demands and a growing emphasis on sustainable heating solutions. As consumers and businesses alike seek to reduce their carbon footprints, ducted heat pumps are emerging as a viable alternative to traditional heating systems. This shift is further supported by advancements in technology, which enhance the performance and reliability of these systems. The market appears to be expanding as more regions adopt regulations favoring energy-efficient appliances, thereby creating a conducive environment for growth. In addition, the Ducted Heat Pump Market is likely to benefit from rising awareness regarding the advantages of ducted systems, such as improved air quality and consistent temperature control. As the global population continues to urbanize, the demand for efficient heating solutions in residential and commercial buildings is expected to increase. Furthermore, the integration of smart technologies into ducted heat pumps may enhance user experience and operational efficiency, potentially attracting a broader customer base. Overall, the market seems poised for continued evolution, reflecting changing consumer preferences and regulatory landscapes.

Technological Advancements

Recent innovations in ducted heat pump technology are enhancing system efficiency and performance. These advancements may include improved compressors, advanced refrigerants, and smart controls that optimize energy use. As a result, consumers could experience lower energy bills and increased comfort.

Sustainability Focus

The growing emphasis on sustainability is influencing the Ducted Heat Pump Market. Consumers are increasingly prioritizing eco-friendly solutions, leading to a rise in demand for systems that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This trend suggests a shift towards more environmentally responsible heating options.

Regulatory Support

Government regulations promoting energy efficiency are likely to bolster the Ducted Heat Pump Market. Incentives and rebates for energy-efficient appliances may encourage consumers to invest in ducted systems, thereby driving market growth. This regulatory landscape appears to favor the adoption of advanced heating technologies.

Ducted Heat Pump Market Drivers

Technological Innovations

The Ducted Heat Pump Market is significantly influenced by ongoing technological innovations. Manufacturers are continuously developing advanced features such as smart thermostats, variable speed compressors, and enhanced refrigerants that improve system performance and user experience. These innovations not only increase the efficiency of ducted heat pumps but also enhance their compatibility with smart home systems. As consumers seek more control over their heating and cooling environments, the integration of technology into ducted heat pumps is likely to drive market growth. Recent studies suggest that the incorporation of smart technology can lead to energy savings of up to 20%, making these systems more appealing.

Increased Energy Efficiency

The Ducted Heat Pump Market is experiencing a notable shift towards energy-efficient solutions. As consumers become more conscious of energy consumption, the demand for ducted heat pumps, which offer higher efficiency ratings compared to traditional heating systems, is on the rise. According to recent data, ducted heat pumps can achieve efficiency ratings of up to 300%, significantly reducing energy bills. This trend is further supported by advancements in technology that enhance the performance of these systems. As energy costs continue to fluctuate, the appeal of ducted heat pumps, which provide both heating and cooling, is likely to grow, driving market expansion.

Consumer Awareness and Education

The Ducted Heat Pump Market is benefiting from increased consumer awareness and education regarding the advantages of ducted heat pumps. As information about energy efficiency, cost savings, and environmental benefits becomes more accessible, consumers are more inclined to consider ducted heat pumps as a viable heating and cooling solution. Educational campaigns by industry stakeholders and government bodies are playing a crucial role in informing potential buyers about the long-term benefits of these systems. Market Research Future indicates that informed consumers are more likely to invest in energy-efficient technologies, suggesting that ongoing education efforts will continue to drive growth in the ducted heat pump market.

Rising Demand for Renewable Energy

The Ducted Heat Pump Market is witnessing a surge in demand for renewable energy solutions. As governments and consumers alike prioritize sustainability, ducted heat pumps, which can be powered by renewable energy sources, are becoming increasingly attractive. The integration of solar panels with ducted heat pump systems is a growing trend, allowing homeowners to utilize clean energy for heating and cooling. This shift not only reduces carbon footprints but also aligns with global efforts to transition towards greener energy solutions. Market data indicates that the adoption of renewable energy in heating systems is expected to increase, further propelling the ducted heat pump market.

Government Incentives and Regulations

The Ducted Heat Pump Market is positively impacted by government incentives and regulations aimed at promoting energy-efficient technologies. Many countries have implemented policies that encourage the adoption of ducted heat pumps through tax credits, rebates, and grants. These incentives not only lower the initial investment costs for consumers but also foster a favorable environment for manufacturers. Regulatory frameworks that mandate higher energy efficiency standards for heating systems further bolster the market. As these policies evolve, they are likely to stimulate demand for ducted heat pumps, making them a more viable option for consumers seeking sustainable heating solutions.

Market Segment Insights

By Installation Type: New Installations (Largest) vs. Replacement Installations (Fastest-Growing)

In the Ducted Heat Pump Market, the market share distribution heavily favors New Installations, which account for a significant portion of overall installations. This trend reflects ongoing construction and expansion in residential and commercial properties that favor energy-efficient heating solutions. Conversely, Replacement Installations, while smaller in market share, are rapidly gaining traction as homeowners seek to upgrade outdated systems to more efficient models, driven by rising energy costs and favorable government incentive programs.

Installation Type: New Installations (Dominant) vs. Replacement Installations (Emerging)

New Installations dominate the Ducted Heat Pump Market as they are primarily driven by advancements in technology and a growing emphasis on energy efficiency in new builds. These installations are characterized by their integration into modern construction projects where sustainable energy solutions are increasingly prioritized. On the other hand, Replacement Installations represent an emerging segment, focusing on retrofitting old systems with newer, more efficient ducted heat pumps. This segment is witnessing strong growth due to increased consumer awareness of energy conservation, coupled with incentives aimed at reducing carbon footprints. Therefore, while New Installations lead, Replacement Installations are carving out their niche rapidly.

By Capacity: Up to 5 tons (Largest) vs. 5-10 tons (Fastest-Growing)

In the Ducted Heat Pump Market, the capacity segment reveals a diverse distribution of market share among various categories. The 'Up to 5 tons' category holds the largest share, favored for its efficiency in smaller residential applications where space and budget constraints prevail. This segment's popularity stems from its effectiveness in moderate climates, making it a go-to choice for homeowners. In contrast, the '5-10 tons' segment emerges as the fastest-growing category, driven by increasing demand from larger residential and commercial properties seeking more substantial heating capabilities without compromising energy efficiency. Looking ahead, growth trends are inclined towards mid-range capacity units, primarily due to the rising awareness of energy efficiency and sustainability. The growing construction of residential and commercial spaces that require ducted heating solutions to maintain comfort levels is paving the way for innovations in this segment. Furthermore, incentives for energy-efficient appliances are enhancing market appeal, making '5-10 tons' units particularly attractive to property developers and energy-conscious consumers, thus solidifying their place in the evolving market landscape.

Up to 5 tons (Dominant) vs. 10-15 tons (Emerging)

The 'Up to 5 tons' category stands as a dominant force within the Ducted Heat Pump Market, primarily catering to smaller homes and lighter commercial spaces. Its efficiency and cost-effectiveness make it a preferred choice for many consumers looking for economical heating solutions. This segment benefits from lower installation costs and ease of use, making it attractive to a wide audience. Conversely, the '10-15 tons' segment is gaining traction as an emerging choice among larger residential buildings and commercial applications. This shift is driven by increasing energy demands and the necessity for efficient heating solutions in sizeable spaces. Units in this category are becoming more sophisticated, with advanced technologies improving their operational efficiency and reducing energy consumption, appealing to environmentally-conscious consumers and businesses.

By Application: Residential (Largest) vs. Commercial (Fastest-Growing)

In the Ducted Heat Pump Market, the application segment is primarily dominated by the residential sector, which holds the largest share. This is due to the increasing focus on energy efficiency and environmentally friendly heating solutions among homeowners. Residential applications are favored due to their ability to provide consistent heating and cooling across various home sizes and configurations, resulting in their dominant market position. In contrast, the commercial segment is rapidly gaining traction, driven by businesses seeking sustainable heating alternatives as part of their operational strategies. The need for energy-efficient systems that can cater to large spaces is propelling the commercial segment's growth.

Residential (Dominant) vs. Commercial (Emerging)

The residential application segment is characterized by a robust demand for ducted heat pumps, as homeowners prioritize energy efficiency and environmental sustainability. This segment benefits from technological advancements that have led to quieter and more efficient systems tailored to residential needs. On the other hand, the commercial segment is emerging as a key player, driven by business initiatives to reduce energy costs and carbon footprints. The shift towards modern, energy-efficient systems in commercial buildings underlines its growing importance. These ducted heat pumps are designed for larger spaces and can accommodate the varied heating and cooling needs of commercial environments, making them crucial for new commercial developments.

By Efficiency Rating: SEER 18-21 (Largest) vs. SEER 21 and above (Fastest-Growing)

In the Ducted Heat Pump Market, the efficiency rating segments are key indicators of performance and energy-saving capacity, with SEER 18-21 currently holding the largest share of the market. This segment appeals to consumers seeking efficiency and cost savings, leading to a significant demand. Following closely, SEER 21 and above is emerging as a vital player, gaining traction due to increased consumer awareness regarding energy efficiency and environmental impact, leading to its fast growth within the industry.

SEER 18-21 (Dominant) vs. SEER 21 and above (Emerging)

The SEER 18-21 segment represents a dominant category within the Ducted Heat Pump Market, appealing to consumers who prioritize efficiency without crossing into the highest tier of energy ratings. These units typically offer a solid balance of cost-effectiveness, energy savings, and performance, making them a popular choice among residential and commercial users. Conversely, the SEER 21 and above segment is characterized by its technological advancements aimed at maximizing energy efficiency and lowering emissions. As consumer preferences shift towards eco-friendliness, this emerging segment is rapidly gaining popularity, promising both superior performance and attractive incentives for eco-conscious buyers.

Get more detailed insights about Ducted Heat Pump Market

Regional Insights

North America : Energy Efficiency Leader

North America is witnessing significant growth in the ducted heat pump market, driven by increasing energy efficiency regulations and a shift towards sustainable heating solutions. The United States holds the largest market share at approximately 65%, followed by Canada at around 20%. The demand is further fueled by government incentives promoting renewable energy technologies and energy-efficient appliances, which are expected to enhance market penetration. The competitive landscape is dominated by key players such as Carrier, Trane, and Rheem, who are investing in innovative technologies to improve efficiency and reduce emissions. The presence of established manufacturers like Daikin and Mitsubishi Electric also contributes to a robust market environment. As consumer awareness of energy efficiency grows, the ducted heat pump market is poised for continued expansion in this region.

Europe : Regulatory-Driven Market

Europe is emerging as a significant player in the ducted heat pump market, driven by stringent regulations aimed at reducing carbon emissions and enhancing energy efficiency. The European market is characterized by a strong focus on sustainability, with the EU's Green Deal promoting the adoption of heat pumps. Germany and France are the largest markets, holding approximately 30% and 25% market shares, respectively, as they lead in implementing energy-efficient technologies and policies. Leading countries in this region are investing heavily in research and development to enhance the performance of ducted heat pumps. Key players like Bosch and LG Electronics are actively participating in this growth, supported by favorable government policies. The competitive landscape is marked by innovation and collaboration among manufacturers, ensuring a steady supply of advanced heating solutions to meet the rising demand.

Asia-Pacific : Emerging Market Potential

The Asia-Pacific region is witnessing rapid growth in the ducted heat pump market, driven by urbanization, rising disposable incomes, and increasing awareness of energy-efficient solutions. Countries like China and Japan are leading the market, with China holding approximately 40% of the share, followed by Japan at around 25%. Government initiatives promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency are acting as catalysts for market expansion in this region. The competitive landscape is characterized by the presence of major players such as Daikin, Mitsubishi Electric, and Fujitsu, who are focusing on technological advancements and product diversification. The growing demand for smart home solutions is also influencing market dynamics, as consumers seek integrated systems that offer both comfort and energy savings. As the region continues to develop, the ducted heat pump market is expected to flourish.

Middle East and Africa : Untapped Market Opportunities

The Middle East and Africa region presents untapped opportunities in the ducted heat pump market, driven by increasing investments in infrastructure and a growing focus on energy efficiency. The market is still in its nascent stages, with countries like South Africa and the UAE leading the way. South Africa holds approximately 15% of the market share, while the UAE is emerging as a key player with a focus on sustainable building practices and energy-efficient technologies. The competitive landscape is evolving, with both local and international players entering the market. Companies like Hitachi and Panasonic are exploring partnerships to enhance their market presence. As awareness of energy-efficient solutions grows, the ducted heat pump market is expected to gain traction, supported by government initiatives aimed at promoting renewable energy and reducing carbon footprints.

Ducted Heat Pump Market Regional Image

Key Players and Competitive Insights

Major players in the Ducted Heat Pump Market industry are constantly striving to gain a competitive edge by investing in research and development, expanding their product offerings, and entering into strategic partnerships and acquisitions. Leading Ducted Heat Pump Market players are focusing on developing innovative products that cater to the evolving needs of customers and meet the growing demand for energy-efficient solutions. The Ducted Heat Pump Market development is also influenced by the increasing adoption of smart home technologies and the integration of IoT devices.

Companies are leveraging these technologies to offer advanced features and functionalities in their Ducted Heat Pump Market products, such as remote control, monitoring, and diagnostics. 

Competitive Landscape is characterized by a mix of well-established players and emerging companies. Key players are focusing on expanding their geographical reach and establishing a strong distribution network to increase their market share.Mitsubishi Electric is a leading player in the Ducted Heat Pump Market. The company offers a wide range of ducted heat pumps for residential and commercial applications. Mitsubishi Electric's ducted heat pumps are known for their high efficiency, reliability, and durability. The company has a strong presence in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific.

Mitsubishi Electric is committed to providing innovative and energy-efficient solutions to its customers and is continuously investing in research and development to improve its product offerings.Daikin is a major competitor in the Ducted Heat Pump Market. 

The company offers a comprehensive range of ducted heat pumps for a variety of applications. Daikin's ducted heat pumps are known for their advanced features, such as variable speed compressors, inverter technology, and smart controls. The company has a global presence and is committed to providing high-quality products and services to its customers. Daikin is continuously investing in research and development to improve its product offerings and meet the evolving needs of its customers.

Key Companies in the Ducted Heat Pump Market market include

Industry Developments

The Ducted Heat Pump Market is projected to grow from USD 10.77 billion in 2024 to USD 19.48 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 6.11%. The market growth is attributed to factors such as rising energy efficiency regulations, increasing demand for sustainable heating and cooling solutions, and growing construction activities. 

Key market players include Daikin Industries, Mitsubishi Electric, Samsung Electronics, LG Electronics, and Gree Electric Appliances. Recent news developments include the launch of new high-efficiency ducted heat pumps by Daikin and Mitsubishi Electric and the acquisition of ClimateMaster by NIBE Industrier in 2022. Emerging trends in the market include the integration of smart technologies and the adoption of natural refrigerants.

Future Outlook

Ducted Heat Pump Market Future Outlook

The Ducted Heat Pump Market is projected to grow at a 6.11% CAGR from 2024 to 2035, driven by increasing energy efficiency demands and technological advancements.

New opportunities lie in:

  • Expansion into smart home integration solutions
  • Development of energy-efficient ducted systems for commercial applications
  • Partnerships with renewable energy providers for hybrid systems

By 2035, the market is expected to be robust, driven by innovation and strategic partnerships.

Market Segmentation

Ducted Heat Pump Market Capacity Outlook

  • Up to 5 tons
  • 5-10 tons
  • 10-15 tons
  • 15 tons and above

Ducted Heat Pump Market Application Outlook

  • Residential
  • Commercial
  • Industrial

Ducted Heat Pump Market Efficiency Rating Outlook

  • SEER 13-16
  • SEER 16-18
  • SEER 18-21
  • SEER 21 and above

Ducted Heat Pump Market Installation Type Outlook

  • New Installations
  • Replacement Installations

Report Scope

MARKET SIZE 202410.77(USD Billion)
MARKET SIZE 202511.42(USD Billion)
MARKET SIZE 203520.67(USD Billion)
COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (CAGR)6.11% (2024 - 2035)
REPORT COVERAGERevenue Forecast, Competitive Landscape, Growth Factors, and Trends
BASE YEAR2024
Market Forecast Period2025 - 2035
Historical Data2019 - 2024
Market Forecast UnitsUSD Billion
Key Companies ProfiledMarket analysis in progress
Segments CoveredMarket segmentation analysis in progress
Key Market OpportunitiesGrowing demand for energy-efficient heating solutions drives innovation in the Ducted Heat Pump Market.
Key Market DynamicsRising consumer demand for energy-efficient solutions drives innovation and competition in the ducted heat pump market.
Countries CoveredNorth America, Europe, APAC, South America, MEA

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FAQs

What is the projected market valuation of the Ducted Heat Pump Market by 2035?

The Ducted Heat Pump Market is projected to reach a valuation of 20.67 USD Billion by 2035.

What was the market valuation of the Ducted Heat Pump Market in 2024?

In 2024, the Ducted Heat Pump Market was valued at 10.77 USD Billion.

What is the expected CAGR for the Ducted Heat Pump Market during the forecast period 2025 - 2035?

The expected CAGR for the Ducted Heat Pump Market during the forecast period 2025 - 2035 is 6.11%.

Which companies are considered key players in the Ducted Heat Pump Market?

Key players in the Ducted Heat Pump Market include Daikin, Mitsubishi Electric, Carrier, Trane, LG Electronics, Fujitsu, Panasonic, Rheem, Bosch, and Hitachi.

What are the projected revenues for new installations in the Ducted Heat Pump Market by 2035?

Projected revenues for new installations in the Ducted Heat Pump Market are expected to reach 12.25 USD Billion by 2035.

How much revenue is anticipated from replacement installations in the Ducted Heat Pump Market by 2035?

By 2035, revenue from replacement installations in the Ducted Heat Pump Market is anticipated to be 8.42 USD Billion.

What is the expected revenue from residential applications in the Ducted Heat Pump Market by 2035?

The expected revenue from residential applications in the Ducted Heat Pump Market is projected to be 8.2 USD Billion by 2035.

What are the revenue projections for ducted heat pumps with a capacity of 5-10 tons by 2035?

Revenue projections for ducted heat pumps with a capacity of 5-10 tons are expected to reach 6.15 USD Billion by 2035.

What is the anticipated revenue for ducted heat pumps with an efficiency rating of SEER 21 and above by 2035?

The anticipated revenue for ducted heat pumps with an efficiency rating of SEER 21 and above is projected to be 6.3 USD Billion by 2035.

What is the expected revenue from industrial applications in the Ducted Heat Pump Market by 2035?

By 2035, the expected revenue from industrial applications in the Ducted Heat Pump Market is projected to be 6.37 USD Billion.

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