Semolina: Driving Business Success with Market Insights

Introduction to Semolina Market

Due to lower glycaemic index, catering to the rising consumer demand for a healthy diet, the demand for semolina is anticipated to increase. As the global semolina market is set to crawl through the forecast period at a sluggish CAGR of 2.31%, the sector will reach USD 2.75 billion by 2035. The size of the market, measured in 2024, was USD 2.14 billion.

The semolina market is one of the main markets in the commodities sector. The demand for semolina is constantly rising year-over-year because it has become a staple ingredient in many foods such as pasta, couscous, and breakfast cereals.

There are three major challenges with this commodity: weather, freight rates, and demand. This increase will not be enough to meet the growing need for semolina. 

Semolina production is affected by drought. Average yields have declined by 30% from the 1970s to the present. Up until recently, there was no major yield loss due to a lack of rain or dry weather, but droughts have begun to impact yields in some parts of the world.

The price of freight has increased since 2008–2009. Western Europe is one of the main suppliers of the semolina market. Western Europe has seen freight rates rise by 25% in the last two decades, which has significantly hindered the semolina industry in the region.

The demand for semolina is growing due to the rising number of vegetarians in many parts of the world. Another major factor in the demand is that semolina is used in a variety of products, most of which require semolina to be produced in multiple regions globally.

The demand for semolina has increased with an expanding population and global food production needs. This increase has led to price fluctuations and periods where there is no stock available or inventory remains unsold. While supply faces challenges, high demand has sometimes led to additional stock being brought to market.

Along with increased demand, there has also been an increase in the cost of semolina. This is due to changing currency values globally and a growing population seeking more variety and quality.

Rising prices can create difficulties in selling in certain markets that previously thrived on lower prices. This also contributes to lower equipment use and reduced profitability for manufacturers seeking higher yields at lower costs.

Regional Analysis

The semolina market is largely driven by production and consumption patterns across key regions. Europe, particularly Western Europe, remains a major supplier, with countries like Italy and France leading production due to established milling infrastructure and demand for pasta and couscous.

North Africa, including countries such as Morocco and Tunisia, is also a significant player in semolina production, though drought conditions have periodically affected yields.

Unrest in North Africa and Central Asia is likely to negatively affect shipments coming from those regions. The economies of North Africa and Central Asia are very sensitive, so any major economic changes could cause food stabilization problems.

The Middle East is a key supplier of semolina globally. Political stability in the Middle East could decline due to economic problems, and rising fuel prices could decrease exports from the region, making it less desirable for imports.

In Africa, politics has played a major role in exports and imports over the last two decades. The tension between Libya and Egypt caused significant disruptions in trade across Africa, especially in countries bordering Egypt.

In West Africa, political unrest affected agricultural markets but did not impact semolina as much as other crops due to its strong demand. In Asia, India and China are both experiencing rising demand due to expanding vegetarian populations and increasing use of semolina in processed foods.

Middle Eastern countries serve as both suppliers and high-demand markets, with exports influenced by political stability and fuel costs. North America and West Africa contribute to production but face logistical and climatic challenges that affect consistent supply.

Overall, semolina production and demand are shaped by a combination of regional agricultural conditions, freight costs, political stability, and dietary trends, making the global semolina market both dynamic and sensitive to external factors.